Enrollment History & Projections | Edina Public Schools

At a Glance

District Enrollment Overview

8,711

FY2025 Enrollment

8,796

FY2026–FY2030 Projected

+85

5-Year Growth

+1.0%

5-Year Growth Rate

Edina Public Schools has experienced steady enrollment growth over the past decade, recovering from a COVID-related dip in FY2021 to reach 8,711 students in FY2025. Projections hold enrollment flat at approximately 8,796 students from FY2026 through FY2030, reflecting stable grade-level cohort sizes across the district.

Projections are based on cohort survival analysis, which tracks the ratio of students progressing from one grade to the next. Kindergarten enrollment is assumed flat, while grade-to-grade progression ratios are derived from weighted 3-year and 5-year historical averages.

Student Enrollment

Enrollment by Grade Level

District-Wide Enrollment — FY2016 through FY2030
Grade	FY2016	FY2017	FY2018	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
PK	58	55	57	54	58	48	63	75	86	80	70	70	70	70	70
KG	514	565	539	567	577	592	611	608	580	582	580	580	580	580	580
1	588	579	626	587	593	584	622	642	621	608	605	605	605	605	605
2	634	612	595	621	594	592	626	642	640	641	621	621	621	621	621
3	615	653	615	605	628	588	606	643	646	664	657	657	657	657	657
4	632	626	667	630	612	622	611	617	637	658	670	670	670	670	670
5	664	635	631	662	652	598	653	632	622	654	673	673	673	673	673
6	679	679	668	657	681	658	623	667	655	669	689	689	689	689	689
7	693	682	686	657	638	681	667	628	680	663	678	678	678	678	678
8	677	684	690	680	655	631	685	676	646	695	679	679	679	679	679
9	689	670	672	662	700	661	665	716	694	697	733	733	733	733	733
10	678	688	676	681	657	687	650	672	699	710	700	700	700	700	700
11	675	668	690	653	655	650	655	666	661	706	712	712	712	712	712
12	633	683	653	696	667	649	626	695	675	684	729	729	729	729	729
TOTAL	8,429	8,479	8,464	8,412	8,365	8,242	8,364	8,580	8,541	8,711	8,796	8,796	8,796	8,796	8,796

Enrollment Trends

Total Enrollment Over Time

The chart below illustrates the District's total enrollment from FY2016 through FY2030. Historical actuals are shown in dark green, with projections in lighter green. The COVID-19 pandemic produced a notable dip in FY2021, followed by a strong recovery that has carried enrollment beyond pre-pandemic levels.

Cohort Survival

Grade Progression Ratios

Grade progression ratios measure the proportion of students who advance from one grade level to the next year. A ratio above 1.00 indicates net growth (in-migration exceeding out-migration), while below 1.00 indicates net attrition. These ratios form the basis for projected enrollment figures.

Grade Progression Ratios — Actuals & Averages
Transition	16→17	17→18	18→19	19→20	20→21	21→22	22→23	23→24	24→25	3-Yr Avg	5-Yr Avg
K → 1	1.127	1.108	1.089	1.044	1.012	1.052	1.051	1.020	1.048	1.040	1.037
1 → 2	1.041	1.028	0.993	1.011	0.999	1.071	1.032	0.996	1.033	1.020	1.026
2 → 3	1.030	1.005	1.016	1.012	0.991	1.024	1.028	1.006	1.037	1.024	1.017
3 → 4	1.017	1.020	1.024	1.012	0.990	1.039	1.018	0.990	1.019	1.009	1.011
4 → 5	1.005	1.008	0.994	1.035	0.976	1.050	1.035	1.007	1.027	1.023	1.019
5 → 6	1.022	1.052	1.041	1.027	1.010	1.042	1.022	1.035	1.075	1.044	1.037
6 → 7	1.004	1.010	0.984	0.971	1.001	1.013	1.009	1.019	1.013	1.014	1.011
7 → 8	0.987	1.012	0.991	0.996	0.989	1.006	1.014	1.029	1.023	1.022	1.012
8 → 9	0.990	0.982	0.960	1.030	1.010	1.055	1.044	1.027	1.078	1.050	1.043
9 → 10	0.998	1.009	1.013	0.991	0.982	0.984	1.010	0.977	1.023	1.003	0.995
10 → 11	0.985	1.003	0.966	0.962	0.991	0.953	1.024	0.984	1.010	1.006	0.992
11 → 12	1.012	0.976	1.009	1.022	0.992	0.963	1.061	1.014	1.035	1.037	1.013

Methodology

Notes & Assumptions

Analysis assumes no caps on cohort sizes and projects purely based on cohort survival.
Actual enrollment before the start of the 2025-2026 school year not yet factored in.
Fiscal year 2025 enrollment data is from the August 11, 2025 "District ADM Summary". Figures are not yet final.